The Discipline scenario
The 'Discipline' scenario
Human size, tightly regulated
It is 2040 and Jeroen is standing up in his energy-neutral flat. He lives in a sustainable student complex, with affordable housing, but strict rules apply and it sometimes feels a bit clinical. On campus, he makes his way to an AI-driven workshop. The AI mentor immediately recognises him and suggests a curriculum. He dives into ethical technology issues. Tim appreciates the flexibility, but sometimes lacks spontaneity. During his break, he swipes through the possible campus activities; a VR trip, meditation, and a debate. Later, in a soundproof pod, he relaxes using a mindfulness app. Cycling back, he appreciates technological advances but also longs for simplicity. The campus, both liberating and confining, evokes mixed feelings.
In the year 2040, education is structured and firmly regulated, with a strong focus on public values, privacy and sustainability. This translates into a campus environment that emphasises identity and community building, and programmes that balance between flexibility and standardisation. Government and European regulations guide education on both the 'what' and the 'how', with an emphasis on social relevance and labour market needs. Campuses are sustainable knowledge hubs, CO2-neutral, and integrate naturally with their surroundings. Inclusiveness is a core value; diversity is essential, and technology serves purely as a tool. The connection between campus and business is strengthened, with a focus on authentic learning experiences. Despite technological advances, the human touch is central to all decision-making. Thus, a new balance has been achieved in a disciplined way.
- Education forms identity and cultivates communities.
- Strong standardisation enables flexibility.
- Strict privacy and environmental rules.
- Sustainability is an obligation, not a choice.
- Inclusiveness is a fundamental right.
- Human values are central to all decisions.
- Government strongly directs process and content.
- Teachers remain the core, technology supports.
- Seamless integration of online and offline learning.
- Campus as icon of sustainability.
To better understand this scenario, it helps to think through its characteristics to extremes. When we do this, we arrive at the following aspects:
Extreme sustainability measures: Any violation of strict rules is immediately punished with severe penalties.
Total government control: Government regulation permeates every aspect of life.
Hyper-standardisation of learning pathways: Every student has a predetermined and standardised learning pathway from which deviation is impossible.
Total privacy and surveillance: Constant surveillance and monitoring have become normal.
Radically healthy lifestyle: Healthy eating and exercise are mandatory.
Mandatory community service: A social service obligation.
Unforeseen and disruptive changes that could greatly affect this scenario:
Extreme climate change: Need for more stringent environmental and sustainability measures due to unforeseen environmental conditions, such as an environmental crisis.
Unforeseen technological breakthroughs: Potential disruption or strengthening of the existing regulated structure and balance between people and technology. Consider a privacy scandal.
Changes in international regulations: Redefining local and national regulations through new international standards and laws.
A new pandemic: A new pandemic creates the need for even stricter regulations around hygiene, contact and mobility. This reinforces the need for rules and control.
Changes in political climate: Changes in government policies and the degree of regulation in the education system due to shifts in political power relations.
